1. Understanding 4-year graduation rates will significantly reduce your college expense.

Old Way

We evaluate college cost by “cost of going.” We pay zero attention to 4-year graduation rates.

Old Result

We end up reducing the value of your student’s college degree by hundreds of thousands of dollars over their lifetime. With delayed graduation, the “cheaper” in-state college ends up being the most expensive college you could possibly buy.

New Way

We evaluate colleges by the “cost of graduating.” We adopt a college planning strategy that is 4-year graduation centric; from how we evaluate majors to an analysis of academic fit, retention rate, and, of course, 4-year grad rate.

New Result

The national average of a 4-year graduation is 19%*. By employing an on-time graduation strategy, over 90% of our students graduate in 4 years and many get their degree at the lowest possible cost.

Source: Complete College America - Data Dashboard

The single best way to minimize your college expense is to simply graduate on time.

Often times, it’s not the lack of ability or the motivation of the student that holds them back. There are institutional limitations that slow down graduation and increase cost. The two most common are:

1. Too many students and not enough teachers on campus. When it is time to register for classes, classes needed to graduate are already full.

2. Students take whatever classes are left to maintain full-time status and scholarship requirements. Classes that do not count towards their major represent wasted time, effort and dollars.

Source: Complete College America

Instead of asking how much it costs to go to college, we need to ask “how much does it cost to graduate?”

The question we need to ask the colleges: “How many of your students graduate in 4 years?”

Inflating college costs and and excessive student loan debt are certainly problematic today, but these issues are only symptomatic of a root cause: college completion. Most students never even finish college, leaving them unable to pay their student loans.

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Completing College: A National View of Student Completion Rates

6 out of 10 students will not have a degree after six years.

— Elisa Nadworny - NPR Special Series: Changing Face of College . March 13, 2019

Staying in college longer than four years will cost you a lot more than you think.

First, students who spend an extra one or two years in school as a full-time student incur an opportunity cost in the form of forgone earnings. Economists measure this cost as the wages one could have earned with a college degree had one graduated a year or two earlier. Second, entering the job market a year or two late damages students’ lifetime earnings profile. In addition to giving up one or two years of college-level earnings while in school, students miss out on a year or two of experience and the extra push that gives their wages over their working life.

Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz - Liberty Street Ecomonics September 3, 2014

FAQ

Q: How is this true? At the college tour I attended, I was told that the grad rate was 86%.

A: Many colleges quote “grad rate.” Notice there is no number mentioned. When colleges quote “grad rate,” they are usually quoting their 6-year rate. This begs the question: Why are they giving you the 6-year rate?

Q:I know someone that finished in 4 years. Is this really true?

A: We didn’t say zero students are getting done on time. We are saying that not many are. Also, did the student you know spend extra money and time taking classes over the summer?

Q: Isn’t this just a scare tactic? l was able to finish college in 4 years.

A: A lot has changed. The number of students going to college today has doubled since you went to college. This creates many college campuses that are simply too crowded and unable to accommodate all of their students. Ask around, you are going to see that delayed graduation or no graduation is a reality for most students.

2. Looking to “expensive” colleges can net larger award letters and lower overall cost.

Old Way

We run away from the “expensive” colleges with big price tags and go after the “cheaper” in-state public colleges.

Old Result

We’ve significantly reduced the available college options for our students. Ironically, given the lower graduation rates of in-state public colleges, we inadvertently pick the colleges that end up costing families the most due to delayed graduation.

New Way

We chase the “expensive” colleges because we recognize that they can potentially pay bigger scholarships. We use more of the college’s money to pay for college and less of our own. These “expensive” colleges, with better 4-year graduation rates further minimize cost by providing a lower cost of graduation. With the right data, our students have a wider range of colleges to choose from beyond the typical in-state public options.

New Result

Our students get into the best possible colleges at the lowest possible prices.

Many so called “expensive colleges” actually pay very large scholarships. Often times the cost of graduation is less than an in-state public university. Sometimes, the same is true with the total cost of attendance.

Many colleges possess significant financial assets in the hundreds of millions of dollars, some are in the billions. This is where we look for college money.

As you can see above, these “non-profit” institutions are hoarding some serious cash. Again, many colleges not even mentioned on this list still have hundreds of millions stashed away.

As you can see, 4 out of 7 “expensive” colleges on Lillie’s list came under the in-state average cost of about $26,000 while offering better 4-year graduation rates.

FAQ

Q: How is this true? Our guidance counselors have been telling us to go in-state for years.

A: Often times, many guidance counselors just don’t know. The in-state myth is a very persistent one that you will hear from your financial advisor, CPA and many financial gurus and advocates. We’re just stating the facts.

Q: I know there are families paying full-price at these “expensive colleges.” Why are they paying full price?

A: There are a lot of variables here, but our guess is that they just don’t know what we know. A significant percentage of our clients already have college planners or financial advisors that they turn to for help. Often times, some families are told that they “make too much” and that they could not get any money, only to find that they can. They just expanded their understanding of how colleges really work.

Q: There has to be a catch here. The case study you presented probably has an amazing GPA and unrealistically high test score.

A: There’s no catch. Lillie had a 3.6 GPA and a 23 on the ACT when she obtained these results. Often times, the students with mid range GPAs and test scores can get amazing merit awards. It’s about knowing where to look and finding the right fit.

3. Using social media can increase your admissions chances and your merit awards.

Old Way

Many admissions counselors and college planners are unaware that social media can be used in a proactive way. When social media is mentioned, it’s usually as a warning comprised of two major viewpoints: 1. Don’t do anything stupid 2. Run away and hide. We do not see the value of social media and rely instead on the college essay and transcript and test score to tell our student’s story.

Old Result

We rely on magazines, online ranking lists, internet forums (a.k.a noise) for our “college research.” Family’s insights into the colleges are fragmented, conflicting, and limited. Our students get “lost in the stack,” with no options to set themselves apart other than tired essays, subjective grades, and arbitrary test scores.

New Way

We leverage social media as a tool rather than a toy. Using social media, our students and parents get “real time” and useful data that is arguably unattainable through other means, even through a college visit. Social media allows a student to tell their story on their terms. Our students develop lifelong skills that will serve them beyond college and into their careers. Our students are not limited to 500-700 words on an essay, a GPA, or a test score.

New Result

With better data, our families and students make smarter decisions. Our students tell their story with a broader canvas, increase their visibility to the colleges and receive greater merit scholarships.

Social media is the most misunderstood and underutilized tool in the college planning process that can increase your admissions chances and your merit awards.

We find that LinkedIn is one of the most effective tools to learn about colleges and careers. Danny discusses the subject in an article (posted below) he authored in the Atlanta Journal Constitution.

Did you know that every college has a LinkedIn page? There is a wealth of information available to enhance your college and career search.

If you major in X at college Y, you can get a job at company Z.

Social media increases your student’s visibility.

What if social media isn’t just a toy but an essential tool to tell your unique story?

Which story do you want to tell?

More college admissions officers consider applicants’ social media profiles “fair game.”

The percentage of college admissions officers who believe that incorporating applicants social media pages into their decisions is “fair game” continues to trend upward reaching 65% in the 2020 survey of over 300 up from 59% in 2019 and 57% in 2018. - 2021 Kaplan Survey

If someone sends us a link of any kind, it doesn’t have to be from some company or some organization, if it seems relevant to making the best possible case for that person’s admission, we will certainly take a look at it.

-William R. Fitzsimmons, Harvard’s Dean of Admissions

Over 75% of colleges monitor social media as part of their admissions & merit aid decisions.

-AACRAO.ORG July 2017 (American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers)

“It all started in late 2013 when a student was telling me about her visit to Elon University. She said that she tweeted about her visit and that the college tweeted back. She asked me what she should do and I did not have an answer.

I did not even know what a tweet or a hashtag even was. I did some research and realized that there was ZERO meaningful guidance when it came to social media and college admissions. We eventually cracked the code. We’ve been sharing what we know about social media since 2014 and we continue to educate our families on the latest developments. To this day, several years later, so many in Higher Education have yet to catch on.”

Danny Umali - Co-Principal of Game Theory College Planners

Our take on social media engagement. What does it really mean?

FAQ

Q: Isn’t it safer to just stay away from social media altogether?

A: Colleges are not looking at social media to find reasons to reject your student, they are looking to learn more about your student. Therefore, if your student does not have a discoverable social media presence, they are missing a golden opportunity to showcase their talents, skills, and accomplishments to college decision makers.

Q: I don’t believe in social media for my student. There’s a lot of garbage out there and it’s dangerous.

A: We believe that social media education should be taught earlier rather than learned the hard way later on. The best defense to the dangers of social media is awareness. Social media isn’t some trend that is simply going away. A developed social media skillset is essential in the college search and eventually the career search.

Q: How does my student create a LinkedIn page? They haven’t done anything yet. They don’t even have a job.

A: As adults, we use LinkedIn to show what we’ve done. High school students can use LinkedIn to show the colleges who they hope to become and an opportunity to give the colleges insight into their character.

Q: Can the principles learned here be used for the parent’s own professional and career development?

A: Now you are getting it!

Q: So what you are basically saying is all that I need is a LinkedIn page?

A: Not at all. We are simply using LinkedIn as an example. Many social media platforms can be used this way, depending on the type of career field a student pursues. Twitter is a great way to follow influencers in certain fields or related organizations. Students considering more creative careers can use Instagram or a YouTube channel.

Q: Are colleges really looking? I can’t believe they have time to do all of this.

A: Yes. Colleges really are looking. Some colleges take a proactive stance with social media. On occasion, our students who leave their phone numbers in the “contact” section of their LinkedIn page get phone calls from the colleges. Other colleges take an approach where if “you engage us, then we will engage you.”

Q: My student does not want to change their social media accounts. How will this help?

A: The plan is not to change their personal social media, unless we have concerns about specific and questionable content. The actual plan is to create a discoverable and professional social media presence (for colleges and future employers to have ready access) that co-exists with their personal social media accounts.

Q: My student is not on social media. How can this help?

A: At the very minimum, your student will need a professional social media footprint to engage colleges and open lines of communication with future employers.

4. Knowing your , Expected Family Contribution before the government or college does will save you tens of thousands of dollars.*

*Beginning grad year 2024, Expected Family Contribution (EFC) has been renamed the Student Aid Index (SAI).

Old Way

We are guided by an imperfect understanding of how financial aid really works. We overpay by tens of thousands of dollars.

Old Result

We drastically alter the kinds of colleges we think our students can attend and many dream schools are needlessly crossed off the list.

New Way

We know our EFC and how the colleges will apply that calculation beforehand and take necessary steps to maximize our financial aid. We recognize that colleges award merit aid based on financial aid leveraging. We drastically alter the kinds of colleges we think our students can attend with less limitations on cost. We increase our college options.

New Result

By knowing and leveraging your EFC in advance, we save tens of thousands of dollars.

EFC or cost calculators on the internet and on college websites all fail to show one thing: How to position your EFC to get your student the maximum amount of financial aid.

Arranging family finances is one area where private consultants can help, says Pamela Fowler, executive director of financial aid at the University of Michigan—who otherwise isn't a big fan of consultants. In some instances, she says, consultants can help a family "better position" themselves for financial aid. "It can give families an advantage," she says. "Do I think that's equitable or right? No. But I can certainly understand why some families do it."

Bloomberg Business Week . Do Consultants Ease Financial Aid Angst? By Alison Damast February 03, 2008

(Cost of Attendance) - Expected Family Contribution (EFC) = Need

This is the basic formula all colleges use when calculating financial aid eligibility. In Andrew’s case, we were able to shift the initial EFC from $16,540 to a lower baseline of $11,709. By combining this shift with a strategic college selection strategy, we recovered an additional $4,831 per year in gift aid from Vanderbilt.

The EFC is not always an indication of what a family will pay. In some instances the EFC is an indicator of the kind of aid you are eligible for. In Melinda’a case, our FAFSA strategy helped us recover $27,000 per year in merit aid at Augustana College.

*Names changed due to disclosure of confidential financial information.

Both need and merit-based aid systems are impacted by the family’s finances. In many cases, merit aid is not awarded primarily on the academic achievements of the student.

Given the number of families we work with each year we come across interesting “twin studies” that give us tremendous insights into how colleges award merit aid. Below is the case of Patrick and Aaron*, two students applying to the same college in the same year. Both students have similar family incomes and academics.

*Names changed due to disclosure of confidential financial information.

Not a happy email from “Patrick’s” Family. He did get merit awards from other colleges, but were about half of what they should have been given his strong academics.

Patrick’s family ultimately subscribed to the notion that merit aid was based purely on academics and was only awarded $700 per year at Santa Clara. On paper they could have easily afforded the $62,948 per year required to send him to Santa Clara. The savings, bonds and investments, however, constituted a large portion of their non-qualified retirement funds and his parents could not risk losing a quarter of a million dollars of retirement savings to the college. Patrick ended-up going in-state and had to give up his dream of going to college in the West Coast. They were simply not an attractive target for “financial aid leveraging” to the college.

FAQ

Q: I have seen the merit aid charts published by the colleges. Certain test scores get certain merit scholarships. How could all of this be true.

A: A few colleges award based on a simple “grid” system but not all colleges do. Some colleges are more flexible with pricing.

Q: But the FAFSA says that certain assets only raise the EFC by certain percentages. What gives?

A: The FAFSA outlines federal rules for how federal aid is calculated. When colleges award aid from their own pockets, they can create their own rules.

Q: My financial advisor/CPA/admissions counselor/college planner says I can’t get any aid and that I should not file a FAFSA.

A: They are wrong.

Q. Changing my EFC sounds fishy. Is the work you do even legal?

A: Yes, the work we do is perfectly legal. At the risk of sounding defensive, we do want to say something:

You know what sounds fishy to us? We feel that charging 60-80K a year for college sounds fishy. We feel that colleges calling themselves non-profits, hoarding hundreds of millions or billions in cash sounds fishy; but yes, everything we do is perfectly legal and ethical. We won’t win any popularity contests with the colleges but we don’t work for them. We work for you.

5. Using your head first (with empirical data), then your heart, will lead to smarter college decisions.

Old Way

We leave what is potentially a $200,000-300,000 decision in the hands of a teenager. We pick colleges based on factors that do not predict success.

Old Result

We end up with students unhappy from a break-up with their girlfriend or boyfriend. They realize that their other friends have changed. Students find themselves over or underwhelmed from their coursework. Students drop-out, transfer, or end up living at home on your couch. Parents find themselves with a college they cannot afford.

New Way

We evaluate colleges with the latest metrics available and with the greatest predictors of success in addition to meeting the students social and personal expectations of the college experience. We strike a balance between finding the college your student wants and finding the college your student needs. For parents, we find colleges that are affordable.

New Result

We use empirical data as a foundation for college success. Students find themselves exactly where they should be and where they want to be. Parents find themselves able to pay for it.

College is an emotional decision. There are a lot of ways to choose a college but we believe that objective data is the best place to start the college search before we take any subjective and emotional factors into consideration.

How we should pick colleges: Get in. Fit in. Get paid… Get out.

It really comes down to pace. How we define fit.

There are a lot of competing theories as to what these standardized tests measure and if they predict success. We believe that students should thrive at college, that the college environment should accommodate the student’s unique academic fit.

We believe that your student’s test score is not an IQ test but rather a measure of pace. We have developed an empirical selection strategy designed to cut through the noise. This is how we start the college search. This is our Theory of Student Positioning.

FAQ

Q: Are there any guarantees? This can’t be an exact science. We are working with teenagers that are hard to talk to and can change their mind at any moment. Why should I pay for this?

A: You are right. Teenagers can be difficult to work with and we’ve seen them change their minds too. We guarantee nothing. What we can do is offer a methodology that adapts. We can also offer a voice that comes from a source other than their parents, a source your student may be willing to listen to. We believe at the end of the day, we have to start somewhere. We’ve seen the other college planning approaches and we understand your concerns.

Q: Can’t I just go on Google and the online message boards and figure this out on my own?

A: You can but many families simply do not have the time to achieve the same results. The problem isn’t knowing where to get the answers. The problem is that often times, many students and families end up asking the wrong questions. You can wash your own car or mow your own lawn but some people just choose to have the work done by a professional. With college, the stakes are clearly higher.

Q: My student is not a good test taker can you still help?

A: We probably can. There are many variables to successfully finding a great college that you can afford. We believe that every student deserves a shot if they are willing to put in the work. In addition, we recognize that many institutions have adopted a test optional policy and can tailor our approach as these trends develop.

Q: How do you find colleges that parents can afford?

A: Our data sets also allow us to predict college costs by projecting grants and merit awards based on the family’s financial aid profile. Yeah, it’s a pretty neat trick!

6. Creating competition between colleges maximizes merit aid.

Old Way

We enter the college marketplace ready to buy a college thinking the colleges set the price as the sellers. We are unaware of the price “elasticity” that exists with colleges.

Old Result

We end up overpaying for college since we do not truly understand the dynamic relationship of who the buyers and sellers really are.

New Way

We evaluate colleges by their enrollment yield. We use additional metrics to filter out colleges that are willing to buy your student vs. colleges that are not. We understand that the colleges are the buyers looking to buy my students with thousands of dollars in merit aid. We understand that competition drives the merit award process. We get our students into some of the best colleges in the country at a fraction of the price because we are not beholden to outdated thinking.

New Result

Through competition we have maximized our merit awards.

We teach families a shift in perspective very few people get to see: Colleges are buying students instead of the other way around. Though we have been teaching this for over a decade, it’s great to see this insight finally shared in the mainstream.

“To discover whether a college is a buyer or seller, look at the percentage of applicants it admits, the percentage of those who choose to enroll (the yield rate), and the percentage of institutional aid that is given out without respect to an applicant’s financial need. The lower the admit rate, the higher the yield, and the larger the percentage of aid based on need, the more likely the school is a seller. You can find this information on a school’s Common Data Set questionnaire (found via an internet search) or simply ask them.

Savvy students willing to look beyond the brand-name sellers can find great schools that are buyers. Compare, for example, two private, urban universities in the south. Emory University in Atlanta, with a sticker price around $70,000 a year, accepts less than one-fifth of applicants and spends less than 10% of its financial aid on merit-based discounts. Emory is a seller. New Orleans-based Tulane University, with a nearly identical sticker price, spends more than half of its institutional aid budget on merit-based aid. Yet both schools attract top-tier students with average SAT scores near 1500.”

- Opinion: How to use a Moneyball strategy for college applications and find excellent schools that are undervalued Nov. 27, 2020 . By Jeffrey Selingo

When you look at the patterns, lower enrollment yields suggest a college that “buys.” These colleges tend to be more flexible with pricing and are more susceptible to competition with other colleges by maximizing merit scholarships to fill their seats.

(Enrollment yield is the percentage of accepted students that actually enroll).

A common trend in Higher Ed: Lower enrollment yield tends to indicate more merit aid awarded, or a college that “buys” and competes for their students.

Source: Jeff Selingo analysis of U.S Department of Education’s IPEDS surveys (2028-2019); Common Data Set (2028-2019)

Here’s what you really need to know: Competition is a byproduct of our collective strategies.

By going after colleges that are ultra-personalized to your student from academic fit and aligning them to your financial aid profile (throw in some additional engagement from social media), not only are we compiling a list of great prospective colleges, we are creating a list of colleges that naturally compete with one another.

Check out this 40 second clip from the NPR podcast. We came across this podcast back in 2012 that “spilled the beans” about how colleges really buy students.

FAQ

Q: Is it only low ranked schools that are desperate enough to buy students?

A: Not at all. If you look at the examples of the enrollment yields presented above, we don’t think anyone with any credibility would suggest that these colleges are in any way “second rate.”

Q: What kind of test scores and GPA does my student need for a college to compete in this way?

A: There are a lot of variables in addition to test score and GPA. We’ve seen these results for students with GPAs as low as 2.4 and with test scores as low as an 800 on the SAT.

Q: Does this mean that colleges will negotiate their pricing?

A: It can. However, colleges do not call this a negotiation. This is referred to as professional judgement or a financial aid appeal. We don’t recommend running into the financial aid office with competing award letters in your hand demanding more cash. There’s a process and an art to this that usually boils down to one of three versions:

1. You ask for more aid and see what you get. 2. You ask for more aid but you give them a number you have in mind. 3. You do some combination of no. 1 & 2 and you show them a competing award letter.

Keep in mind that some colleges do not appeal financial aid outside of unusual and unique circumstances, but many colleges will consider a competing offer.

7. Validating award letters for consistency drives college costs down to the absolute minimum.

Old Way

We accept the award letter at face value. Families sophisticated enough to file appeals or initiate professional judgement do so without the right data.

Old Result

We end up overpaying the college by thousands of dollars.

New Way

We evaluate all financial aid appeal or professional judgement strategies. We go into the appeal with the data we need so we know how far we can go.

New Result

By validating award letters through financial aid appeal, we leave no money on the table. We get into colleges with the highest possible merit awards and at the lowest possible cost.

Many families think that the first offer from the college is the best and only offer. Often times this is simply not true. Award letters can be negotiated, but don’t call it a “negotiation” when speaking to the colleges directly. Colleges prefer terms such as “financial aid appeal” and “professional judgement.” The term “negotiation” implies even footing. Colleges don’t like that.

There is a lot of noise around this topic and sorting through the details is just like everything else: How do you make sense of it all?

Sources: Below are various screenshots of online articles on the subject from numerous outlets ranging from Forbes, New York Times, and Washington Post.

Here are points the articles DO NOT cover. We’ll start by giving you some ground rules about financial aid appeals that you should know:

Not all colleges will entertain an appeal. Some colleges will only consider appeals based on unique or major life events such as a divorce or the loss of a job. However, many colleges will consider appeals that take on one of three basic forms:

• You can ask for more money and see what happens.

• You can ask for more money and give them a number to see if they’ll match it.

• Some combination of the first two approaches and you supply an award letter or multiple letters from a competing college.

An appeal works best when you consider three things:

• The side that names the number first usually loses. In this case, that’s the college.

• Never go into an appeal without knowing what your number is supposed to be.

• You do not have to accept the first “no” from a college. You can “appeal up” but this requires advanced planning.

Without knowing how much money you were supposed to get from the college in the first place, you will never realize the full potential of your appeal strategy. Without the right data, you can’t play in this sandbox.

FAQ

Q: This seems easy enough. Can’t I just try this on my own?

A: You sure can. We just can’t promise you will get the same result.

Q: I’ve read about this and tried it. It does not work. How can what you are saying here even be true?

A: What data did you have? What strategy did you use? If we had to guess, you probably went in blind.

Q: Where do you get your award letter data?

A: Our team has been doing this for over a decade and we save every award letter we can get our hands on. We have an exhaustive archive of award letters from just about every college in the United States. Nobody even comes close to what we have. We also break down and analyze the award letters against the student’s academics and the family’s financial footprint. You would be amazed at what we know.

Q: I wish I knew this when I sent my first kid through college. Is there a way to go back and get more money?

A: Typically the answer is no. However, if a major life event occurs such as a divorce or a loss of employment, there may be something you can do.

Again, this is for you…

If you are the parents of high school sophomores, juniors, or seniors who want to see their student go into the world and reap all of the rewards of having a degree without the debt.

If you feel that every student, regardless of circumstance, deserves the best shot possible at the best education they can get, you are definitely at the right place.

If you want to see your student get into the best possible college and at the lowest possible price, you are at the right place. If you want to use more of the college’s money and use less of yours to finance these educations, you are at the right place.

If you are racked with guilt thinking that you are a bad parent for not having this all figured out, don’t be.

If you feel like you make too much money to get any aid but make too little to actually afford these over priced colleges, you can stop worrying. If you are thinking that you don’t make enough money to hire us, don’t worry.

If you’ve already thrown thousands of dollars at a college planner or admissions counselor and you’re not getting anywhere, you are at the right place.

If you’ve done all the online research, listened to all the podcasts, and read all the blogs and you realized that you have made zero progress, you are at the right place. If you suspect that colleges are more like businesses than they are educational institutions, you are on the right track.

Again, thousands of families have used us to achieve fantastic results for over a decade.

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